Sunday, October 12, 2008

Weathering a financial storm

The Star - 12 Oct. 2008
In the context of a global financial meltdown and fears of a recession, the guiding principle for now should be capital preservation - how do I protect what I have? IT is said that when America sneezes, the rest of the world will catch a cold. Now, America is sick and the rest of the world “could end up in the intensive care unit (ICU) if no steroid injection is given urgently”. Expressing his concern, Datuk Seri Dr Fong Chan Onn, MCA economic policy bureau chairman, says that “Like it or not, America is the bedrock, the ground zero - the world’s financial institutions evolved from Wall Street and the Federal Reserve.” He believes that the current economic turmoil had its beginning in the aftermath of Sept 11, 2001, and that we are heading for choppy times because the severity of a global financial meltdown has not been fully played out yet. Despite announcements of government intervention across the US and Europe and bailouts amounting to trillions of US dollars, the world saw stock markets tumbling down and falling for seven consecutive days in anticipation of a global recession. The message is the same everywhere: investors do not think the end of the problem is in sight yet and what is plaguing the markets is a “loss of confidence”.

The question Malaysians are asking is not whether the financial tsunami will hit us but when and how badly. Are our deposits in our banks safe, what about our jobs and our businesses, and our investments in the stock market? Last week, it was reported that the US lost 160,000 jobs.
“This is another indication that the economy is in stress. If the economic downturn is severe, consumption will be reduced and the US will import less from Asia,” says Dr Fong in an interview. The former Human Resources Minister and dean of Universiti Malaya’s Faculty of Economics and Administration adds that Malaysia exports a high volume of electrical items and other goods to the US. When America tightens its belt, investments to other countries will slow down. Although Malaysia has diversified its investment sources to other countries, the Middle East, for instance, America and Europe remain the major markets for world production.
“We cannot underestimate their effect on us,” says Dr Fong.
Dr Fong: 'Malaysian banks too should offer 100% guarantee'
“Unfortunately, the Government and the public have not taken cognisance of how severe this economic tsunami can be,” says Dr Fong. “In 1997-1998, investors lost confidence in the Asian currency but we had the US and China to support us through. “Now, it is the apex, the rock of Gibraltar, that is in trouble. The epicentre in New York is spreading to Europe and other markets have also tumbled. “It is also going to affect China because China has US$520bil locked in US treasury bills. So do Japan (US$600bil); Hong Kong (US$60bil) and even Thailand (US$32bil). “For a massive loan mortgage of US$2.5tril, more than a few banks will be involved. Unless all declare their bad loans, we will not know the extent of the problem.
“In the Lehman bankruptcy filing, for example, it was disclosed that Citibank owed US$1.5bil. Another example: HSBC headquarters in London has an outstanding obligation of US$20bil within six months. “My personal feeling is we are heading for choppy times because the severity has not been fully played out yet. “It will take a much longer time to recover. Our exports would slow down, orders may reduce, and factories may have to reduce staff, freeze new employment...”
Everyone agrees that the good that came from the 1997 crisis is that the Government imposed a lot of instruments and regulations on our financial institutions. They need to be locally incorporated; are compelled to abide by guidelines on the amount of investment they can make overseas;have to get Bank Negara clearance for investment overseas; and are generally limited to 10% of their deposit.
“On the whole, our financial institutions are not that adversely affected. However, many individuals are affected by this turmoil because they have invested in shares and many other financial products offered by these financial institutions,” says Dr Fong.

In this region, Malaysia’s coverage per depositor per bank is one of the most comprehensive, eclipsing that of even Singapore (US$13,808) and Hong Kong (US$12,872).One way around this RM60,000 insurance limit for the man on the street is to spread his deposits around the 36 member banks or set up a range of joint accounts in a bank or several banks. “But banks also should make it a point to tell customers that their deposits are guaranteed up to RM60,000 only, to allow depositors to make appropriate decisions to safeguard their capital. Ireland offers 100% guarantee and Germany has pledged to do the same. Malaysia should also look at doing that,” says Dr Fong. If our deposits are relatively safe, how do we nevertheless prepare for the hard times ahead? Says Dr Fong: “The guiding principle for now should be capital preservation. This is the time for folks to think ‘what steps should I take to preserve what I have?’ It is definitely not the time to think of how much profit one can make.“This is not the time to be foolhardy and enter the stock market, this is my opinion. Do not use borrowed money hoping to go in and making a killing within a year.“We still do not know and understand fully the exact nature of damages from this mega crisis.“It is too risky to venture into the unknown. Even the smartest professional investors can make mistakes, what more individual investors with their hard-earned money.”He cites the example of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp, which bought a slice of UBS for 10bil francs in December only to find a few months later, that it was holding on to merely half its value.“It has the financial strength to hold on to the shares but many individual investors do not,” he says.“If one really wants to pick up stocks, look at the dividend yield. At the present price, if it gives a dividend yield of 10%, which is higher than for fixed deposits, one can consider. Also, make sure the stocks are recession-proof, such as counters in health, education and food.“As for properties, well, if you need a home, you need to buy. But in any economic situation, people will look at locality. Properties in good locations can easily be resold or rented out. You can look around but again, the principle should be capital preservation.”Good foundations: The Malaysian banking sector is expected to be stable in 2008 despite the global financial crisis as the old-style model of conservative banking is now holding us in good stead.
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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Fong: Why I prefer to be a veep

Exclusive Interview with Malaysiakini
Stanley Koh
The MCA poll on Oct 18 can hold little trepidation for vice-president Fong Chan Onn, for this will be his fifth outing in a contest that he has comfortably won twice before.Having held the post for 11 years now, he explained why he has chosen not to aim higher, despite rampant speculation that he would do so.“The MCA is currently at the crossroads. With my experience and economic background, I can serve the party in specific areas,” Fong had written in his blogspot after declaring his candidacy for one of the four elected vice-presidential slots. During the interview, he elaborated on this: “My strength is in the area of economics. I believe that, with my knowledge, experience and expertise, I can help the party leaders to formulate an economic roadmap which in turn can contribute to our nation’s efforts in facing prevailing economics-related challenges.“….and this explains why I am not contesting the No. 1 and 2 posts. I truly believe that I am able to play a (better) role as a vice- president, contributing to economic development.”However, he is critical of the MCA policy to restrict the presidency and various top posts to a three-term tenure, saying this must be reviewed.Fong, 64, argued the policy creates more disadvantages than advantages: “While it creates more opportunities (for younger leaders), the disadvantage is that the party will lose more experienced leaders.”Asked why he had endorsed the policy when it was proposed, he said this was “because I was a minister then….with vested interests”. “There should be more flexibility in implementing it. In the past, it was an unwritten understanding (that a leader cannot hold a government post for a long time), but there was never a written guideline.“For example, hypothetically, if Ong Ka Ting (right) serves his third term until it expires in 2011 or 2012, a change in president will be necessary. (Since this will coincide with the next general election, it could) affect the party’s performance.”He agreed that the leadership profile should be representative of all age groups to ensure continuity and gradual renewal, and that “delegates will look at the leader’s capability and not the age factor”.

Vocal response
On the party’s relationship with Umno, Fong cited the existence of ‘inbuilt understanding’ by way of “body language” among the three major ethnic-based parties in the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN).“I was deputy education minister for 8 to 9 years. Whenever we mention Chinese education, they (Umno) know what the community needs,” he explained.“Although MCA is Chinese-based, Malaysians want the leadership to be more vocal on many other national issues affecting them, for example on issues like public safety, corruption and use of the Internal Security Act (ISA).“We spoke out in all sincerity against the ISA detention of (DAP parliamentarian) Teresa Kok. I am of the opinion that even (blogger) Raja Petra (Kamarudin) need not be detained under the ISA. He has written a lot. If the government thinks that these materials violate provisions of the (Sedition) Act, then charge him under this law.”On public perceptions of reform within MCA, Fong disagreed that the party’s vocal stand since the March general election was merely to project a new image. “This is what the people want to see. They do not want the party to react to issues in a week or two but immediately.”
Economic pie 'shrinking’
Fong, who is also the party’s Economics Bureau chairperson, has been a strong proponent of liberalising restrictive policies and reviewing outdated guidelines, to respond to globalisation.This, he said, would, improve the environment for trade and commerce, as well as enable more effective competition with neighbouring countries.On the New Economic Policy, Fong warned that the “shrinking economic pie” from year to year will affect bread-and-butter issues, especially with worsening inflation due mainly to higher petrol prices.“We cannot waste any more time. We must liberalise (our economy) from the quota system, relax this restriction and be competitive with China, India and other Asean countries like Vietnam,” he said.“If I am re-elected vice-president, I will help the party to draw up an economic blueprint. I will conduct a nationwide roadshow to explain (this to the grassroots) and obtain their feedback for consensus on economic-related decisions (and submit it via the party’s leadership) to the government.“Another important area is the government’s role in assisting small- and medium-scale enterprises. MCA will continue to contribute to this.”Fong further said Malaysia must be prepared for the fallout from economic and financial turmoil in the US, among other countries.“We must be prepared. We must explain to the ground and the government must prepare contingency plans to face these challenges just as we did during the 1997 financial currency crisis.”Another major challenge for the nation, he said, is to deal with the impact of the brain-drain. He cited Singapore’s success in stemming corruption and financial leakages by improving salary and wage structures. Fong, an electrical engineer by training, later obtained a doctorate in business administration. He was dean of the faculty of economics and administration at Universiti Malaya when former MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik ‘helicoptered’ him into the party in 1990.(The term refers to a party candidate being recruited to a political post without undergoing the tedious process of rank-and-file promotion.)He was appointed deputy education minister (October 1990-December 1999), then promoted to cabinet minister with the human resources portfolio (December 1999 to March 2008). However, he was dropped from the cabinet following the general election in March, although he was one of only 15 successful MCA parliamentarians - he retained the Alor Gajah seat. During Ling’s tenure, he played a key role as party representative in the National Economic Consultative Council and in the Tunku Abdul Rahman University Council.

Fong is a blogger and a prolific writer on socio-economic issues like poverty, industrialisation and population. He has authored eight books and written 43 chapters for international journals

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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Molotov Cocktail Attack on Kok Despicable

The Molotov cocktail attack on Seputeh MP Teresa Kok is a despicable act. We should respect other people’s views and opinions even if they do not agree with ours and showing our anger by resorting to such acts as hurling Molotov cocktails into the house of YB Teresa Kok should not be condoned. We may not all agree or see eye-to-eye on certain issues, but everyone is entitled to his/her own opinion and should be allowed to express that opinion freely. If we do not agree with what a Wakil Raykat does, then the proper way to voice your objection is through the ballot box and not through any form of violence. I urge the police to investigate this incident swiftly and arrest those responsible. We need to condemn such acts before it becomes part of our culture.

( Mand version click "more" )

以汽油弹攻击郭素沁,行为卑鄙

以汽油弹攻击士布爹区国会议员郭素沁,是一项卑鄙的行为。虽然我们应该尊重其他人的意见和看法,即使他们不同意我们的意见,但是,采用向抛掷汽油弹到国会议员郭素沁的家里,以发泄愤怒的行为,是不能受到宽恕的。也许,我们不可能完全同意某些问题,不过,每一个人都有权利表达自己的意见,他们应该获准自由表达他们的看法。如果我们不同意一名国会议员的做法,适当的方法是,通过投票去表达他们的反对,而不是通过任何形式的暴力行动。我促请警方迅速调查这起事件,并且把应该对这项攻击行动负责的人绳之以法。我们必须谴责这些行为,以免今后成为我们的文化的一部分。


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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Fong for VP MCA

I am glad to announce that I will be offering myself to continue to serve as a vice president in the MCA in the October 18 Party Elections. I have served four terms as a vice president since I was first elected in 1996. Since then, I have served the Party diligently in various capacities, including the Presidential Council, the MCA Economic Bureau and state liaison heads. I wish to continue to serve the Party as I am confident that I still can contribute significantly to the Party.

The MCA is currently as a crossroad. The current political situation in the country requires the MCA, which is the second largest party in the Barisan Nasional, to be strong to face up to the challenges. To do this, the MCA must act as a united front to project itself as a strong voice, not only in the Barisan Nasional, but also in representing the Chinese community and Malaysians as a whole.

With my experiences and my economics background, I can serve the Party in specific areas, as I had when I first entered politics – the various national economic plans, the consultative councils to draw up national development plans, inputs to various government economic and business policies and Party and government educational, economic and development blueprints.

I hope that Party grassroots and central delegates will continue to give me their support – as they had during the past four Party elections – so that I can carry on with my responsibility in serving the Party.

Thank you.

( Mand version click "more" )

冯镇安攻打马华副总会长

我欣然的宣布,我会在10月18日的马华党选中竞选马华副总会长的职位,以便继续提供服务。自我于1996年第一次中选为副总会长以来,已经担任4届的副总会长。在任期间,我勤勉的执行各种职务,包括会长理事会、马华经济局以及州联委会主席的职务。我希望能够继续为党服务,因为我相信,我仍然可以对党做出显著的贡献。

马华现在走到了十字路口。目前的政治局势,使得作为国阵第二大政党的马华必须强大起来,以面对各种挑战。要实现这个目标,马华必须充当一个团结的阵线,使得它不但能够在国阵内,而且也能够为它所代表的华社,以及所有的马来西亚人,发出强大的声音。

以我的经验和我的经济学的背景来说,我可以在一些特定领域为党提供服务,因为我介入政坛以来,曾经先后落实各项国家经济计划;参与协商理事会,制定国家发展计划;为政府的各项经济和商业政策,以及党和政府的教育、经济和发展大蓝图,提供意见。

我希望党基层和中央代表,将继续给我大力的支持,就像他们在过去4届党选中给我的支持一样。这样,我才可以继续履行我的责任,为党提供服务。


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Najib’s Experience Will be an Advantage

I welcome YAB Dato Sri Najib Tun Razak’s move to the Finance Ministry. I am confident with his vast experience and background, he would be able to steer the country out of the current economic situation. I appeal to Dato Sri Najib to take all the necessary steps to liberalize the economy. For example, relooking at FIC requirements to encourage more foreign direct investments as he stated in his Ministerial statement during the tabling of the Mid Term Review of the Ninth Malaysia Plan. I also hope Dato Sri Najib will further relax equity conditions – like requiring 30% Bumiputera equity before listing on Bursa Malaysia ‑ to bring Malaysia forward to the global era. I also hope that Dato Sri Najib will initiate steps to ensure speedier approvals for investment proposals. Vietnam, for example, takes just a week to approval investment proposals and we have to improve ourselves in this area or lose out to other regional countries.

I also call on Dato Sri Najib to remove subsidies and ceiling prices which are hindrances to economic growth. Subsidies and ceiling prices give a false picture of the current situation ie. they suppress the actual inflation rate and result in wages being kept low, thus encouraging a migration of workers to other countries. Removing these hurdles will put the country in tune with real economic conditions and in line with global development.

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纳吉的经验将是一个优势

我欢迎副首相纳吉接替财政部的职务。我深信,以他的广泛经验和背景,他将能够领导我国摆脱目前的经济情况。我敦促纳吉采取一切必要的措施,使我国的经济自由化。例如,重新检讨外来投资的条例,以鼓励更多的外来直接投资,就好像他在提呈第九个马来西亚计划中期检讨发表的部门声明中所说的一样。.我也希望,纳吉将进一步放宽股权的条件,例如公司在马来西亚股票交易所挂牌之前必须拥有 30% 土著股权的条例。这样才能使我国迈向全球化的时代。此外,纳吉也应该采取步骤,确保投资建议能够更迅速获得通过。以越南作为例子,这个国家只用一个星期的时间就批准了投资建议。因此,我们必须在这方面作出改善,否则外资将流到本区域其他的国家。

我也敦促纳吉撤销一些补贴和实行顶价的措施,因为它们会妨碍我国的经济成长。补贴和顶价措施令人对目前的情况产生错误的看法,也就是,这些措施抑制实质的通货膨胀率,同时导致工资被压低。这样会造成工人转移到其他国家打工。只有撤销这些障碍,才能反映出国家的实质经济情况,同时符合全球的发展。


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Monday, September 22, 2008

No Need For Race Relations Act

I personally do not see how the adoption of the proposed Race Relations Act will strengthen race relations in the country in the long term. I think we are looking at it from a wrong angle. Any law does not foster good relations. All it does is punish those who are found to have violated it. What we need is some form of social engineering. We should not adopt a “hard” stance in our long term objective to foster better relations amongst Malaysians. Instead, we should use the “soft” approach ie. educating and nurturing Malaysians to appreciate the values of respecting each other and enjoying each other’s friendship. Such values must be imbued in every young Malaysian so that they will grow up accepting other races as Malaysians. Instilling and not enforcing such values should be the focus of the government's effort.

I feel the situation is not as bad as we all assume it to be. Malaysians, in general, can mix well with each other. More often than not, it is the callous comments from some people, including political and community leaders, that spark off “tensions”.

So let us tackle race relations from the correct perspective.

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不需要种族关系法令

我本人不认同,接纳建议中的种族关系法令,长远来说将加强我国的种族关系。我觉得,我们是从错误的角度看待这个问题。任何的法令都不能促进良好的关系。法令只能用来惩罚违反它的人。我们需要的是社会关系的加强。对于促进马来西亚人民之间的关系的长远目标,我们不应该采取“强硬”的立场。相反的,我们应该采用“软”.的方法,例如教育,以及向马来西亚人灌输鉴赏互相尊重和享受彼此间友好关系的价值观。这些价值观更应该向每一名年小的马来西亚人灌输,以便在他们成长后,能够接受其他种族为马来西亚人。 灌输这些价值观的工作,应该成为政府做出努力的重点项目。

我认为,目前的局势并非人们所想象的那么坏。马来西亚人民一般上可以很好的相处。很多时候,由于一些人,包括政治人物和社会领袖的无情批评,而引发了“紧张”的局面。

且让我们从正确的观点来克服种族关系的问题。


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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Decision Not to Review the ISA a Complete Disregard for Public Opinion

The recent spate of detentions under the Internal Security Act have sparked negative reactions from the people, including those in the government. It showed how a law, which was enacted during the Emergency in the 1960s, could be abused and is totally irrelevant in modern day. Following the recent detentions, there were calls from various groups – including myself and the MCA, several Cabinet ministers and the Bar Council - for the government to repeal or review the ISA as the country is no longer facing the threat of terrorists or communists.

I feel the government should not just brush these comments aside. Instead, it should do the right thing by relooking at whether there is still a need for such an Act, and if so, how to set up a mechanism to ensure that the ISA will not be used on civilians – as during the recent detentions. The country has legislatures which the government can use to prosecute those who were found to have broken laws and thus there is no need for the ISA which allows detentions without trial.

In the light of this recent development, I find Home Minister, Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar’s comments that the ISA will not be reviewed and repealed to be a complete disregard for public opinion. Syed Hamid was also quoted as saying that the various groups who have spoken out against the ISA “were entitled to their own views”. It shows that he is either out of touch with the people’s sentiments or he has total disregard for the basic human rights of the Malaysians.

As a senior minister, Datuk Seri Syed Hamid should realize that the government’s existence is based on the people’s support. Continued disregard of the people’s sentiments will further jeopardize the government’s position and the opposition will continue to ride on this diminished support to further their cause and destabilize the government.

( Mand version click "more" )

不检讨内安法令的决定,完全漠视舆论

最近发生一连串在内安法令下进行逮捕的行动,引发了人民,包括政府人员的负面回应。这显示,一项在上个世纪60年代紧急状态时期制定的法令,是如何的被滥用,而且在现代实行已经不恰当。随着最近发生的几项逮捕事件之后,好几个组织,包括我本人和马华,一些内阁部长和律师公会致电给政府,要求政府撤消或检讨内安法令,因为我国已经不再面对恐怖分子或共产党的威胁。

我认为,政府不应该对这些批评置之不理。相反的,它应该正视这个问题,重新检讨和确定,这样的法令是否仍然需要实行。如果仍然需要,要如何制定一项机制,以确保内安法令不会被用在老百姓的身上,就好像最近的逮捕事件一样。我国拥有各项法例,政府可以援引它们去提控那些触犯法令的人,而不需要援引只有扣留而没有审讯的内安法令。

鉴于最近的事态演变,我发现内政部长赛哈密发表有关内安法令不会受到检讨和撤销的评论,完全是漠视舆论。赛哈密也被引述说,发表反对内安法令的各组织,只是发表他们自己的意见。这说明,赛哈密如果不是不熟悉人民的情绪,就是完全蔑视马来西亚人民的基本人权。

身为一位资深的部长,赛哈密应该了解到,政府是依赖人民的支持,才得以生存的。如果继续漠视人民的情绪,将会进一步破坏政府的地位,而反对党就会乘机会利用这些已经被减弱的支持,进一步展开它们的斗争,以及颠覆政府。


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